‘To have only picked up four points from 18 is a negative cycle.’ Marcelo Bielsa’s words came after West Ham triumphed 2-1 at Elland Road in December 2020, and after a repeat result on Saturday Leeds have now picked up only three points from 18 available.

“ is this really just a negative cycle, or are Leeds not the same team that they were last season? ”

Leeds vs West Ham - Not how we wanted it to be…

After last season’s West Ham defeat Bielsa went on to explain that half the teams in the Premier League had gone through a similar cycle, and by the end of the season every team except the top two had as well (Chelsea collected four points from 18 in December, and in February Tottenham collected three from 18 and Liverpool three from 21). Leeds suffered another negative cycle in early Spring, again taking only four points from 18 available, but despite these poor runs Bielsa’s side finished a very respectable ninth, with a points total that would have been enough for European qualification in most seasons (George Graham’s Leeds team finished fifth with the same 59-point total, despite taking five points from 24 after Christmas).

The fact that 2021’s negative cycle has come at the beginning of the season brings a different complexion though, and begs the question - is this really just a negative cycle, or are Leeds not the same team that they were last season? The easy answer is that it’s too early to say. The sample size is too small, and distorted by the fact that half our matches this season have been against top six teams. So we judge on what we see, and in the first half on Saturday I saw a team that was vibrant, determined and confident. Despite the injuries they looked every bit as good as last season, as they have in short bursts against Newcastle, Everton and even Liverpool. But they are yet to do it over 90 minutes and as against Newcastle their performance tailed off in the second half, only this time a much better opponent punished them. More dropped points and more mitigating factors, like the width of a post denying Rapha, an unfortunate double deflection to equalise, and Antonio staying on the pitch to score the winner despite deliberate elbows on Meslier and Raphinha, and another on Cooper for good measure.

There have been mitigating factors in most our games this season, and mitigating factors is why Bielsa values performances over results – Leeds will finish where their performances merit – but whether we deserve to have a few more points on the board or not, I can see why there is concern. It may be too early to criticise Junior Firpo, but he has struggled to adapt to English football, or perhaps more significantly, Bielsa’s football. It is certainly too early to criticise Dan James, though the fact he was withdrawn at halftime despite Biesla knowing Raphinha wouldn’t last much longer tells the tale of his disappointing full home debut. More worrying was the midfield, where Dallas endured his worst game of the season and Klich once again looked a shadow of himself. With Forshaw now ruled out for a month (at least) we really need one of those two to find their feet. That’s not all I’m afraid. Now there is the mental challenge of chasing your first win, the added pressure of being in the relegation zone, and, dare I say it, the dreaded curse of Second Season Syndrome. For nearly a quarter of a decade, every Yorkshire-based team has survived their first season in the Premier League and been relegated in their second, a run that goes all the way back to Barnsley who were relegated in their first season in 1997/98. Will Leeds continue the trend?

“there is the mental challenge of chasing your first win, being in the relegation zone, and, dare I say it, the threat of the dreaded Second Season Syndrome.”

My opinion is emphatic - no chuffing way! Last season’s Leeds is in there waiting to burst out, perhaps even an improved version. Raphinha is going up a level, Rodrigo will too if he stays fit. Phillips and Meslier will continue to blossom, and Harrison and our centre-backs will continue to impress (whichever two of them are fit). These are top class players who will drag those who have struggled to hit the heights of last season through their rocky patches. Furthermore, our players have overcome much sterner tests than this. The way they responded to a long negative cycle in the promotion season was outstanding, especially considering the added pressure having already thrown away promotion twice the previous season (league and play-offs). They also have the backing of the best fans in the country, and the best manager in the business.

After last season’s home defeat to West Ham, Leeds had 14 points on the board from 12 matches. With fixtures against Watford, Southampton, Wolves and Norwich to come, we still have a realistic chance of exceeding that total by the time game week 12 comes around. Keep the faith people, Marcelo Bielsa’s Leeds United have well and truly earnt it. At the very least, hold your judgement until the end of October.

Rocco Dean - Author of Marcelo Bielsa vs The Damned United (order on Amazon)

A NEGATIVE CYCLE